LONG ISLAND, New York – Picking a winner in the FedEx Tour Championship that begins Thursday at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta is different from every other PGA Tour event because of the so-called Starting Strokes format that began in 2019. It’s kind of a reverse handicap system that gives top-ranked Scottie Scheffler a minus-10 score before the event starts, second-ranked Xander Schauffele a minus-8 and then graduates down to the last five players in the 30-man field who all begin at even par.
Last year, Viktor Hovland and Schauffele each shot a low gross 19-under. But Hovland began at 8-under as the second seed while Schauffele began at 3-under in the group ranked from Nos. 11-15, so he finished second by five strokes behind Hovland. The lowest seed ever to win the Tour Championship under the Starting Strokes format is Rory McIlroy, who was seeded seventh and started at minus-4 in his 2022 win.
So, when it comes to picking a winner, I strictly am focused on the top 10 players, including Scheffler (-10), Schauffele (-8), Hideki Matsuyama (-7), Keegan Bradley (-6), Ludvig Aberg (-5) and then Sam Burns, Patrick Cantlay, Collin Morikawa, Wyndham Clark and McIlroy, all of whom begin at minus-4. The first two playoff events were won by Matsuyama and Bradley.
St. Jude champion Matsuyama was in second place one stroke back when he withdrew from the BMW event with a back problem last week, but he is one of the leading favorites at the newly renovated East Lake course, which added a par-5 on the back nine and now is a par-71 layout stretching 7,490 yards.
Despite design changes, including larger greens, my pick to win has a great track record at East Lake that should make him the favorite. Without a doubt, I am choosing Schauffele to win the $25 million first prize.
Not only is he the second seed with two major championship wins in the PGA and the Open Championship earlier this season, but he has finished no worse than T-5 in the five previous Tour Championship events played under the Starting Strokes format. He has two solo seconds, a second-place tie, a solo fourth and his T-5 since 2019, and he never has shot higher than 70 at East Lake, where his scoring average is 66.60.
If Schauffele wins, he merits player of the year consideration over Scheffler, who has six Tour wins plus the Olympic gold medal. Scheffler has a so-so record at East Lake but belongs in the top five picks at low odds because his No. 1 starting position can’t be ignored. My next three picks are Matsuyama, Burns and Aberg.
Despite his injury, Matsuyama is hot at the right time and is motivated to become the first Asian winner. Burns also has shown the ability to go low recently and is coming off T-5 and T-2 finishes in the two previous playoff events. Aberg recorded his third runnerup finish this season with a T-2 at the BMW Championship, where he shot a 9-under 61 in one round.
It is hard to bypass McIlroy, who is a three-time Tour Championship winner, including twice under the Starting Strokes format. He has eight top-10 finishes in 10 Tour Championship appearances, but he has been inconsistent lately, especially in terms of driving accuracy.
So, I am looking for Schauffele to emerge from Scheffler’s long shadow to cap off what has been a magnificent season.
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