LONG ISLAND, New York – Talk about a tough opening act. It would be hard for any tournament to follow The Masters, which is golf’s most celebrated major venue. But the Heritage Classic, which is played over the 7,000-yard, par-71 Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head, S.C., is a storied event in its own right.
The location is magnificent with the iconic lighthouse situated beyond the 18th green. It’s truly one of the most recognizable landmarks on the PGA Tour, and this year’s tournament is an enhanced event with a $20 million purse that includes $3.6 million for the winner.
Certain players have proven over the past few years that their games are a fit for the shotmaking required at Harbour Town, as a study of the past five events shows. Of course, Scottie Scheffler, who just won his second Masters title in three years and is the No. 1 ranked player in the field is an 18-5 favorite. But his wife is expecting a baby any day now, and he could be distracted after his recent great run this year, so he will not be among my picks this week.
My projected winner is Masters runner-up Ludvig Aberg (which is pronounced Oh-berg, as we are learning from PGA telecasts, where he is emerging as a top star). Besides finishing second at the Masters, the Swede has one win on the DP World Tour and won a PGA event in his rookie season. He also was on the winning European Ryder Cup team. His star is on the ascent, and I predict he will win his second PGA Tour event because his shotmaking ability suits the demands of the Harbour Town Golf Links.
My second and third picks are defending champion Matt Fitzpatrick, who has three other top-15 finishes in the past five Heritage Classics and goes off at 2200-1 odds, and Jordan Spieth, who lost a playoff to Fitzpatrick last year after winning in 2022. He has struggled recently, which explains his generous 3000-1 odds, but he definitely is a horse for the course.
My next four picks are players you might want to consider for top-10 bets at lesser odds. They include Patrick Cantlay, who was third last year, second in 2022 and finished in the top 20 in 2018 and goes off at +1600 and 2020 winner Webb Simpson, who was T9 in 2021, top-20 in 2018 and is listed at +20000 because he has no top-10 finishes this year. The other two are lesser players in Corey Conners, who has three top-20 finishes from 2020-22 and is listed at +5000-1, and Emiliano Grillo, who was T7 last year, T2 in 2021 and T-15 in 2018 and is listed at +16000 to win.
Tommy Fleetwood, who has played well recently is listed at only 2000-1, finished T-15 last year and T-10 in 2022. He’s worth a top-10 shot. Finally, longshot players should like Brian Harman (+4500), who was T-7 last year and T-13 in 2021, and Shane Lowry (+6000), who was T-3 in 2022 and T-9 in 2021.
The track records really matter at Harbour Town Golf Links, and they figured significantly into my picks even above recent performance. This will mark the first time Aberg has played Harbour Town Golf Links, but he has finished in the top-20 in 13 of his last 19 appearances on the PGA Tour and helped Europe win the Ryder Cup last year. He scored his first PGA Tour win last fall.
As the Masters commentators all suggested, Aberg is on the brink of stardom, and I say he takes the next big leap forward with a win at the Heritage Classic over the esteemed Harbour Town Golf Links that require precise shotmaking.
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