LONG ISLAND, New York – Honestly, the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla, which is a par-72, 7458-yard layout in Louisville, Ky., is the toughest pick of the entire golf season simply because it has the strongest field by far. I mean, by far. There literally are dozens of top-quality players who could win.
So, my picks are going to seem very predictable because so many top players are peaking at the right time. At the same time, my first pick to win might come out of the blue because he is not a PGA Tour player. I am picking Brooks Koepka to repeat for the second time in this championship. Koepka has won 5 majors, and he is the only player to repeat twice in a major.
Koepka won the U.S. Open in 2017-18, and he won the PGA in 2018-19. Plus, he is the defending PGA champion after winning in 2023. Koepka now plays on the LIV Tour, so his accomplishments do not receive the same publicity as players on the PGA Tour. But he won his last LIV event in Singapore, and he has six top-10s and three wins in his past nine LIV events. So, he is primed for a return to competition against PGA players.
My second pick is Scottie Scheffler. It seems obvious because he is the No. 1 player in the World Golf Rankings, but his wife Meredith just gave birth to their first child, a boy named Bennett, last Friday. He might be distracted right now, but he won his last tournament and has a strokes-gained average of 15 over the field in his past five starts. Pretty damn hard to ignore.
My third pick might seem like it is coming out of the blue. It is another LIV player Bryson DeChambeau. He has made four cuts in six PGA appearances, which isn’t great. But he finished fourth in 2020 and last year in 2023. He also led an early round of the Masters this year, and he is the longest driver in the field, which means a lot at Valhalla.
Rory McIlroy is my fourth pick. I wanted to ignore him, but he won the Wells Fargo tournament in Charlotte last week by a huge margin after winning the Zurich Classic team event the previous week in New Orleans. Rory is hot and is putting well, but I find it difficult to believe he can win 3 straight. At the same time, he is the biggest driver in the field.
My fifth pick originally was Jason Day. But he is a little too sketchy right now. So, I switched and went with longshot Taylor Gooch. He has finished T-15 or better 15 times in the 20 events he has played this season. He plays on the LIV Tour, where he has won three times in 20 events.
So Gooch is my third pick to finish in the top five who plays on the LIV Tour. This is tough for me. I don’t like the LIV Tour. But I am going with Koepka to win and DeChambeau and Gooch to contend and finish in the top five. The only two PGA players I can put in the top five are Scheffler and McIlroy.
At the same time, my top five longshots all are from the PGA Tour. They include Justin Thomas, who has struggled lately but is a two-time PGA champion with five top-15 finishes in nine starts. Okay, I also love Day, who has made 11 of 14 cuts at the PGA and has six top-10 finishes, including a 2015 win. He has been driving very well lately, which is key.
Here are my final three longshots – Sepp Straka, who has made the cut in all three PGAs he played, has finished T20 in three of his past four majors and loves Zoysia grass, which is Valhalla’s main grass. The last two are Shane Lowry, who partnered with McIlroy to win two weeks ago in New Orleans, and veteran Adam Scott. Lowry has finished T25 or better in five of the past six PGA tournaments, including fourth in 2021. Scott has made the cut in 17 of his 22 PGA Tournaments, including six top-10 finishes. In his past five starts, Scott has gained two strokes over the field in putting and driving. At Valhalla, driving is critical.
In the end, I simply can’t ignore the top three players in the world. I am putting LIV’s Koepka ahead of No. 1 Scheffler, who might be distracted after the birth of his first child. I can’t ignore McIlroy, who has won his past two events, but he is fourth behind DeChambeau, an LIV player who is the biggest driver in the field. I can’t help myself. Gooch, who has won three times on the LIV Tour in 20 events this season is my fifth pick.
Good luck to all.
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