LONG ISLAND, New York – Looking back to the early part of the 2025 PGA Tour season, it’s almost laughable that World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler was viewed as getting off to a “slow start.” Every commentator should have added a qualifier – “by his impossibly high standards.”
Scheffler’s amazing golf game is back on its axis. His “slow start” consisted of six finishes of T-11 or better in his first eight starts, plus a T-20 at the The Players Championship and T-25 at the Phoenix Open.
But he has victories in three of his past four events, including his third career major at the PGA Championship plus wins at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson and in his last outing at The Memorial, the event run by Jack Nicklaus whose company Scheffler aspires to keep in golf history. The other outing in that run was a T-4 at the Charles Schwab event.
So as much as I might like to go against the chalk, my pick to win the 125th U.S. Open this week at Oakmont Country Club has to be Scheffler. This will be a record 10th U.S. Open at Oakmont, a brutal par-70, 7,372-yard layout whose two par-5 holes measure 632 and 611 yards plus two 500-yard par-4 holes in the finishing four.
Scheffler won the PGA at extremely difficult Quail Hollow going away by four strokes over his nearest competition. Given the difficulty and depth of the rain-soaked rough at Oakmont that some have called “savage,” it could be much the same story for Scheffler, who will be seeking to add the third leg of the Grand Slam to his two wins at the Masters plus the PGA.
Once you get past Scheffler, the most obvious threat is defending U.S. Open champion Bryson DeChambeau, who won by one stroke at Pinehurst No. 2 when Rory McIlroy bogeyed three of the last four holes. DeChambeau’s length off the tee always is an advantage, and he has eight T-10 finishes in 10 events, including a win at the recent LIV Golf event in Korea plus a T-5 at the Masters and a T-2 at the PGA.
My third pick is Shane Lowry, who was the 54-hole leader the last time the U.S. Open visited Oakmont in 2016 when Dustin Johnson was the winner. Lowry has two second-place finishes this season but shot a final-round 81 at the Masters and missed cut at the PGA.
My fourth choice is Joaquin Niemann, who has been super-hot on the LIV Golf circuit with four wins in eight events, including last week at LIV Virginia. Niemann was T-8 at the PGA but that was his first career top-10 in a major. Fifth is Xander Schauffele, who won two major titles last year but has only one top-10 in nine events this season. However, Schauffele has seven top-10 finishes in eight appearances at the U.S. Open with a worst of T-14.
My sixth choice is Sepp Straka, who has two victories this season and leads the Tour in greens in regulation, but he missed cuts at the Masters and PGA. Seventh is Ludvig Aberg, who won the Genesis Invitational at Torrey Pines and seems to be finding his game again, and eighth is Justin Thomas, who has a win and three seconds but missed the cut at the PGA.
Ninth is Hideki Matsuyama, who missed the cut at the PGA to end a streak of 19 made cuts in the majors, and he should get back on track. Collin Morikawa last won 19 months ago in Japan but has two seconds this season and is 10th choice.
I skipped over McIlroy, who completed the career Grand Slam with his win at the Masters but missed the cut last week at the Canadian Open with extremely poor driving, which only will get him in trouble at Oakmont.
Good luck to everyone.
