LONG ISLAND, New York – There is no question that Scottie Scheffler has been the No. 1 hottest player on the planet with six victories in 2024, including the Masters. So, the most dramatic choice regarding my top five picks to win the 152nd Open Championship this week at Royal Troon on the Ayrshire coast of Scotland is my decision to omit Scheffler from that list even though he won the Travelers Championship his last time out.
Scheffler made the cut in his previous three Open appearances, but his best finish is eighth in 2021. He hasn’t been totally comfortable with links golf, and he recently fell off to a T41 finish in his last major at the U.S. Open.
So, I am going with four other top contenders and one extremely live longshot to lead the way over the par-71 Old Course at Troon that measures 7,276 yards. My pick to win is Xander Schauffele, who is the reigning PGA champion, was T-7 at the U.S. Open and eighth at the Masters and who threw in a second-place finish at The Players Championship for good measure.
Second choice is Rory McIlroy, who was my pick to win the U.S. Open but choked by missing two putts of less than 4 feet on two of the last three holes at Pinehurst No. 2. McIlroy has won five majors but hasn’t added one since winning the 2014 Open.
My third choice is Collin Morikawa, who has finishes of T-3, T-4 and T-14 in the previous three majors this season and has finished T-23 or better in nine straight starts. He was the 2021 Open champion in his debut.
The only other player besides Schauffele to finish in the top-10 of all three majors this season is Bryson DeChambeau, my fourth pick. He was T-6 in the Masters and second in the PGA before taking advantage of McIlroy’s faltering finish at Pinehurst to win his second U.S. Open. DeChambeau’s highest finish in the Open is eighth in 2022 and some question his driving accuracy, but his sheer length will be an extreme advantage at Troon.
My fifth top pick is extremely live underdog Aaron Rai, the Englishman who shot a closing 63 in the Scottish Open to move up to T4 behind Robert McIntyre, who won in his native country but likely will be out of gas at Troon. Rai has five straight top-20 finishes including three top-5 performances, and he has discovered a great putting touch, which should serve him well on Troon’s greens, which might be a little slower after recent wet weather.
As always, I am offering five other longshots – Tony Finau, Frenchman Matthieu Pavon, young Davis Thompson, Tom Kim and Cameron Young.
Finau has finished T-18 or better in his past five starts and was third in the 2019 Open; Pavon was T-12 at the Masters, fifth at the U.S. Open and is a great ball-striker, and Davis Thompson has been on fire, finishing T-9 at the U.S. Open before winning the John Deere Classic and then shooting a final-round 65 in the Scottish Open.
Kim was runnerup to defending champion Brian Harman in the 2023 Open and is coming off a final-round 64 at the Scottish Open, and Young recently shot a 59 at the Travelers and has T-10 finishes in both previous Open appearances, including a second in 2022.
Another top player I omitted along with Scheffler is Ludvig Aberg, who was the 54-hole leader at the Scottish Open but went 3-over par on the back nine to let McIntyre pass him. He hasn’t shot under par in the final round since the Masters, which is not a good sign.
Good luck to all who plan to wager and the last major championship of 2024.
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