LONG ISLAND, New York – Ever since The PLAYERS Championship moved to the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass in 1982, it has marketed itself as the “fifth major” in professional golf. There is no denying that status because it annually features golf’s best field, including 48 of the top 50-ranked players in the world in the event that begins Thursday at the iconic par-72 layout designed by Pete Dye that now measures 7,352 yards.
The prohibitive +475-1 favorite is world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, who last year became the first-ever to repeat as Players champion. Scheffler has not yet recorded a victory this year but is rounding into form and certainly is one of the best horses for a course that requires precision shot-making. Still, a three-peat seems a bit of a longshot, so he will be the last of my top five favorites to win.
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Form plays a huge role in determining the Players champion. The last five winners all were ranked in the top 10 in the world, 11 of the last 12 winners had a top-20 finish in their previous two starts and 11 of the past 12 had at least one T-25 finish at TPC Sawgrass. Nine of the past 11 champs also had at least one major title to their credit.
I started with a list of the top 15 in the world golf rankings because there are several hot contenders just outside of the top 10. In fact, my favorite to win is No. 13 Sepp Straka (+3200), and my second choice is No. 14 Shane Lowry (+3500). My third pick is world No. 2 Rory McIlroy (+1100), who was the 2019 Players champ, and fourth is No. 6 Hideki Matsuyama (+2700) just ahead of Scheffler.
In mid-January, Straka won the American Express event over another Pete Dye-designed Stadium Course at PGA West in La Quinta, Ca. He recorded a top-20 finish in each of the past two PGA Tour events, including T-5 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week. Straka also has two top-20 Players finishes, including T-16 last year and T-9 in 2022. Straka currently ranks second in greens in regulation, ninth in driving accuracy and 20th in putting average. That is a great combination.
Lowry has yet to win this season, but he was second at the ATT at Pebble Beach, has finished in the top-20 in his past two events, and he has three top-25 finishes at Sawgrass, including T-19 last season and a best of T-8 in 2021. McIlroy is coming off a victory at Pebble Beach and has two top-25 finishes at TPC Sawgrass, including his 2019 title.
Matsuyama is a tempting choice even though he only has a T-22 best in his past two events. He won the Sentry event that opened the 2025 schedule, and he has three top-10 finishes plus a missed cut in his past four appearances in the Players Championship. As for Scheffler, he has finished T-11 or better in three of his four starts this season, but he has yet to approach the form that produced eight wins last year.
My second five contenders include world No. 4 Collin Morikawa (+1200), who lost the fourth-round lead at the API and finished a stroke behind No. 7 Russell Henley (+2800), who also is in my second five at Sawgrass. Although world No. 10 Tommy Fleetwood has yet to record a PGA Tour win, he has three top-25 Players finishes, and so does No. 11 Keegan Bradley. Rounding out my second five is Canadian longshot Corey Conners, who ranks No. 30 but has three top-25 finishes at the Players and is in great form.
Happy St. Patty’s Day weekend and good luck to every bettor sorting out such a deep field in golf’s “fifth major.”
