LONG ISLAND, New York – The Open Championship starting Thursday over the 7,282-yard, par-71 Dunluce Links at Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland is the season’s final major championship, and it is shaping up as the best. It stands in stark contrast to the U.S. Open last month over a tricked-up Oakmont course that was a chaotic minefield that produced second-time winner J.J. Spaun as a surprise champion.
Although links golf is an art form in its own right, it relies on pure shot-making over natural terrain that is far more likely to identify the best golfer in the world than the U.S. Open obstacle course. That is why I believe it will produce an epic battle between the top three golfers in the world in America’s No. 1 Scottie Scheffler (+420), No. 2 Rory McIlroy (+600) of Northern Ireland and Spanish star Jon Rahm (+1100).
It’s tempting to pick native son McIlroy, who completed the career Grand Slam in April with his Masters victory. He missed the cut when the Open last was played at Royal Portrush in 2019 when fellow Irishman Shane Lowry scored a six-stroke victory. But McIlroy said this tournament was “circled” on his calendar when the season began, and he tuned up with a second-place finish at the Scottish Open.
However, I am going with Scheffler as my choice to win because he has become a dominant No. 1 in the world. Scheffler has 10 straight top-10 finishes, three victories, including the PGA Championship, and he has finished T-11 or better in 13 of the 15 events he’s played this season. His worst showing is a T-25.
If anyone can overcome the top two players in the world, it’s Rahm, who has not won this season on the LIV Tour but appears poised to break through to the winner’s circle. Rahm has nine top-10 finishes in 10 LIV events, and the other one was a T-11. He has top-10 finishes in three of the past four Open Championships, and he was T-14 in the Masters, T8 in the PGA and T-7 in the U.S. Open when he left the LIV Tour to play the majors.
My top five is rounded out by defending Open champion Xander Schauffele (+2200), who won at Troon last year and was T-8 last week at the Scottish Open, and Norway’s Viktor Hovland (+2800), who won earlier this season, finished third at the U.S. Open and was T-11 at the Scottish Open.
(Richard Heathcote, Getty Images)
My second five picks start with Sepp Straka (+4500). He has two PGA Tour wins this season plus four T-10 finishes, including seventh at the Scottish Open, but he missed the cut at the other three majors. My seventh pick is England’s Tommy Fleetwood (+2200), who was a distant runnerup to Lowry in 2019 at Portrush for one of his three T-10 finishes in the Open.
Eighth choice is Englishman Tyrell Hatton (+2500), who was T-4 at the U.S. Open and finished T-6 in 2019 at Portrush. Ninth is Lowry (+2400), who has four T-10 finishes this season but missed the cut in the past two majors, and my 10th pick is Englishman Matt Fitzpatrick (+3700), who was T-20 in 2019 at Portrush and fourth at last week’s Scottish Open.
Jordan Spieth (+6000) has finished T-25 or better in seven straight Open Championships, but he is bothered by a neck injury. Ludvig Aberg (+2200) rallied for T-8 at the Scottish Open but has missed cuts at three of the past four majors, and Bryson DeChambeau (+2200) has missed the cut in three of the seven Open Championships he has played.
Good luck to all, and let’s hope this Open Championship is all about identifying the best shot-makers in the world rather than trying to make them crash, as most did at the U.S. Open.
